It’s that time of year again! We’ve been keeping our eyes on the people, trends, and products in the cannabis industry that are on the rise. When growth is as rapid as the cannabis industry, things change quickly. And while we don’t claim to be cannabis clairvoyants, we do have some data-driven predictions of upcoming cannabis trends.
BDS Analytics has crunched the numbers from 2018 and compiled their predictions for what will be the biggest cannabis trends for 2019.
Boomer Use is Blooming
Baby Boomers are an important and growing demographic. They are more likely to consume cannabis because it helps with their health (67 percent). But it’s not that simple, 60 percent of them also admit just doing it for fun.
Brand + Quality = Success
Brands that are In every category outside of flower — edibles, concentrates, and topicals — brands are driving growth by building loyal fan bases with quality products.
In Colorado, branded products equal 96 percent of the edibles market And its competitive out there. During Q3 2015, the top five brands controlled 61 percent of concentrates sales in the state. But by Q3 2018, sales in the top five accounted for only 35 percent. Others are coming on strong as brand awareness of fighter brands increases.
Bud-Based Beverages
Fancy a cup of cannabis? Cannabis drinks racked up sales of $30 million through November 2018, and are forecast to reach $374 million by 2022. This frothing market is overflowing with choices; kombucha, tea bags, pre-packaged canna-coffee, water-soluble powdered mixes, beers, and wines. Bud-based beverages are in full ferment, and CBD (without THC) beverages are both big and increasingly mainstream.
There are many ways to consume cannabis, but perhaps none easier — or more socially acceptable — than simply sipping your sensimillia.
Consumer Loyalty
Cannabis prices keep on dropping because consumers prefer affordable products. In Oregon, the most competitive state, the average price of flower has dropped from $9.27 a gram (Jan 2016) to $4.27 (Nov 2018). But, the price-dip scenario was reversed in California. Edibles prices averaged $14.43 (March 2017, before recreational legalization) and rose to $20.93 (Nov 2018) after supply & demand dynamic responded to more stringent testing laws.
While prices in all broad categories — flower, concentrates, edibles and topicals — have declined in Colorado, none of the drops compare to flower. Concentrates, for example, fell merely 20 percent between January 2016 and November 2018
Therefore it seems that premium products can still triumph. Educating the public will ensure continued rapid growth while offering a combination of price value, consistent/accurate dosing, convenience and quality is a sure way of establishing a strong, loyal, and more frequently purchasing customer base.
Convenience
While some people love elaborate glass dab rigs, the masses crave convenience in all forms, especially novice users. That’s why “location location location” is a top consideration for where consumers shop.
In fact, 67 percent of consumers say it’s vital, with 50 percent admitting they are “largely” influenced by the convenience of the consumption form when choosing a product. It’s a top five decision factor. Therefore it seems likely that convenient delivery modes of accurately dosed products (like sublingual strips) will become increasingly popular.
And finally, delivery matters — as in delivery services — just as it does for all other products. Who today isn’t having others shop for what they are buying? Uber weed anybody?
Education Is Key
CBD is super hot right now. That’s because its the single most therapeutic part of cannabis, with demonstrated anti-inflammatory, antioxidizing, bone strengthening, brain protecting, analgesic qualities and more. With a rep like that, CBD products are taking off across the US, with edibles making up 53 percent of products, and topicals 24 percent.
But public/consumer knowledge is low. In fact, 69 percent of US citizens still don’t know the difference is between CBD and THC, let alone that CBD cant get you high AND reduces the high of THC.
That’s why most CBD users are already cannabis savvy, but even then only 39 percent of cannabis users have tried CBD. In contrast, only 9 percent of acceptors and 1 percent of rejectors have tried CBD.
Honesty in Advertising
While weed is safe enough to wing your dose, more consumers are demanding products accurately dosed to ‘dial in’ an exact experience. 33 percent of edibles consumers prefer low-dose products, (defined as products containing less than 10 mg of THC per serving), 40 percent of edibles consumers prefer high-CBD products, and 27 percent of these consumers prefer low (1mg)THC/high CBD (10 mg) products. 33 percent of consumers want more accurately dosed products and 41 percent of consumers want labels to state effects, (‘relaxation’, ‘energy’).
Innovation = Understanding Consumers
While mainstream consumers keep growing in number, engaging with the discerning, educated, and experienced consumer is key. What they like today, the mass market will likely embrace in six months. Discerning consumers are influencers, early adopters and lead indicators who are willing to spend more for quality, keep up with technology, care that products are locally grown or manufactured, and prefer local, natural, organic, and socially interested brands. They also care about things like processing methods, terpenes, additional cannabinoids, growing methods, and packaging.
Rec or Med… It Doesn’t Matter Anymore
The Boomer crossover is a clear trend in cannabis consumption. Already, 64 percent of US citizens realize that cannabis has health value, and 88 percent of citizens in legal states endorse it for health. Therefore, as people become more canna-savvy, and the herb loses its stigma, more consumers will use it to feel good and to feel well.
Fewer people will self-identify only as “patients” who need medical-only shops. Rec and/or medical consumers will morph into a single canna-consumer. This can be seen in the 73 percent of pain sufferers who also use cannabis for pleasure, and the rapid expansion of medical cannabis markets in states without adult use (eg. Arizona, $22m January 2017-$56m May 2018).
Social Clubs
High there, friend! 71 percent of cannabis fans love to get high for fun and social reasons. 33 percent specifically indulge before meeting others. We think this means that they will leap at the chance for legal public consumption spaces.
Progressive cities like Las Vegas, San Francisco and Denver will likely lead the way, fostering fun the rest of the country will follow. We expect legal cannabis social clubs to blossom through 2019.